Inventory and future view of ferrovanadium and vanadium-nitrogen alloy steel [SMM analysis]

SMM12 March 2: as of December 2, the overall bidding volume of vanadium-nitrogen alloy in November increased by 101.7% compared with October, ferrovanadium decreased by 10.1% compared with October, and the overall bidding volume of vanadium in November increased compared with October.

The main reason for the decrease in the tender volume of ferrovanadium in November compared with October is that the sheet steel mills downstream of ferrovanadium are mainly concentrated in the Northeast and North China. The output of steel mills has been reduced due to factors such as the Winter Olympic Games, air pollution restrictions in autumn and winter, and the reduction of crude steel production. At the same time, the price of sheet metal has fallen recently, and the willingness of manufacturers to purchase and produce has been reduced, so the demand for ferrovanadium has decreased.

Recently, after the sharp rise and fall of sheet vanadium, the bidding volume of vanadium-nitrogen alloy steel mills has also increased, and the transaction price is around 18-185000 yuan / ton acceptance. At present, steel mills have a strong mentality of price reduction for vanadium-nitrogen alloys, but because the production ratio of sheet vanadium and vanadium-nitrogen alloys is about 1.42, and the current price of sheet vanadium is about 120000 yuan / ton, the sheet vanadium cost of vanadium-nitrogen alloys can reach 170000 yuan / ton. Some vanadium-nitrogen alloys say that the processing fee is about 12000 yuan / ton, so the current transaction price of vanadium-nitrogen alloys makes vanadium-nitrogen alloy manufacturers close to hanging upside down. Therefore, under the support of the cost of vanadium, vanadium-nitrogen alloy manufacturers are getting stronger and the transaction price is stable.

SMM believes that the current situation of tight supply of flake vanadium still exists, and the price of flake vanadium may rise, but due to the strong price reduction mentality of the terminal steel plant for vanadium nitrogen alloy, which is transmitted to the flake vanadium market, the space for the rise of flake vanadium price is limited, in this case, the vanadium market price will operate stably in a narrow space in the near future.